The Korean stock market is expected to start down on the 27th. Due to difficulties in processing next year’s budget, concerns are growing about a ‘shutdown’ (partial business suspension) in which US government functions will be temporarily suspended starting next month.
Seo Sang-young, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said in a report that day, “ The MSCI Korea Index ETF fell 3.17%, the MSCI Emerging Index ETF fell 1.41%, and the 1-month NDF dollar/won exchange rate was 1,352.11 won,” adding, “If this is reflected, the dollar/won exchange rate is 2 won.” “Eurex KOSPI200 futures are expected to start on the rise, with Eurex KOSPI200 futures down 0.73% and KOSPI expected to start down around 0.7%,” he predicted.
Previously, on the 26th (US Eastern time) at the New York Stock Exchange ( NYSE ), the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended trading at 33,618.88, down 388.00 points (1.14%) from the previous day. The Standard & Poor’s ( S&P ) 500 index closed at 4,273.53, down 63.91 points (1.47%) from the previous day, and the Nasdaq index closed at 13,063.61, down 207.71 points (1.57%) from the previous day.
The U.S. Treasury bond interest rate hit 4.56% at one point during the session, again breaking the highest level since 2007. Interest rates continue to face upward pressure due to concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve System ( Fed ) will maintain high interest rates for a long time. According to FedWatch
of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME ), in the federal funds ( FF ) interest rate futures market, the probability that the Federal Reserve will freeze interest rates in November is 81.0%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 0.25 percentage points is 19.0%. There was a 62.5% chance of freezing the interest rate at the December meeting, and a 33.2% chance of raising it by 0.25 percentage points. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil ( WTI ) for delivery in November ended trading at $90.39 per barrel, up 71 cents (0.79%) from the previous price.
On the 26th, KOSPI closed trading at 2,462.97, down 32.79 points (1.31%) from the previous day. In the top 10 by market capitalization, Samsung Electronics (005930) (-1.15 %), LG Energy Solution (373220) ( -0.11 %), and SK Hynix (000660) ( -1.71 %) fell, while only Samsung SDI (006400) (0.19%) rose.
The KOSDAQ index also closed at 827.82, down 11.35 points (1.35%) from the previous day. In the top 10 market caps, Ecopro BM (247540) ( -2.68 %), Celltrion Healthcare (091990) ( -0.16 %), L&F (066970) ( -2.68 %), etc. fell, while Ecopro (086520) (0.91%) POSCO DX (022100) (4.40%) rose.
On this day, the trading volume in the stock market and KOSDAQ market was KRW 6.8609 trillion and KRW 7.7083 trillion, respectively. On this day, the won-to-dollar exchange rate in the Seoul foreign exchange market broke a new record at 1348.5 won, up 12.0 won from the previous day.
In relation to this, Researcher Seo said, “As the U.S. stock 메이저사이트market strengthened the dollar amid concerns about an economic contraction, NDF“The continued weakness of the won, with the dollar/won exchange rate exceeding 1,350 won, will put a burden on the Korean stock market,” he said. “The fact that the possibility of an economic recession due to the U.S. shutdown and sluggish economic indicators has been highlighted is negative for foreign investor sentiment.” “It can have an impact,” he pointed out. However, Researcher Seo said, “The reason for the expanded decline in the U.S. stock market is that the Federal Trade Commission’s ( FTC ) lawsuit
against Amazon for violating antitrust laws had a decisive impact, so it is highly unlikely that the expanded decline in the U.S. stock market will be reflected in the Korean stock market.” “No,” he diagnosed. Researcher Seo said, “It is favorable that Micron ( -0.93 %) and other companies are expected to show good results during the Chuseok holiday,” adding, “The US core personal consumption expenditure ( PCE ) price index in August decreased from 4.2% to 3.9% year-on-year. “It is expected to slow down,” he said. Researcher Seo said, “It is also favorable that China’s service industry Purchasing Managers’ Index ( PMI ) is expected to improve,” adding, “This means that during the Chuseok holiday, the global stock market may put aside the sluggish performance at the beginning of the week and see a counter-buying trend.” “Because I do it,” he said. Researcher Seo said, “Taking this into account, the Korean stock market is expected to start with a decline of around 0.7%, followed by a backlash buying trend due to the recent decline.” He added, “The dollar is still strong, and as the U.S. shutdown is determined during the Chuseok holiday, anxiety sentiment is also expected to increase.” “It is expected that it will continue to progress, so the rebound is also expected to be limited,” he said.
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